Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
